Over the weekend draft legislation to implement comprehensive immigration reform “leaked” from the White House, ostensibly tipping the hand of the recently re-inaugurated president as Congress begins to tackle a massive and massively controversial issue. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and other Republican spokespersons immediately denounced the proposal as unrealistic and partisan, but it was harder to tell what lines of distinction could be drawn between competing proposals. But some observers aren’t buying that story line and argue instead that this is just part of the political theatre needed to secure passage of CIR.
A condensed version of this theory is as follows: in the wake of the 2012 elections there is bipartisan agreement that immigration reform must move forward, but anything that appears to belong to President Obama is anathema to certain political elements on the political Right. Also while mainstream Republicans may support CIR their most conservative supporters may not tolerate a path to citizenship for those who are presently in the country without permission. Therefore the agenda of CIR can be advanced best by having the president float a proposal so these political elements can denounce it and replace it with other legislation that ultimately prevails.
It is an intriguing way to frame this discussion, and it is a theory that seems to be on the minds of some of Washington’s savviest observers. It also ascribes an impressive leadership quality to the president: that he would be willing to draw political fire on a proposal with his own name on it in order to clear the way for others to reach consensus and then propose a “middle of the road” proposal as antithesis to the president’s plan.
Overall the debate has hardly shifted: leading proposals are that, contingent on “increased border security,” a path to citizenship will be opened to some 11 million undocumented individuals by means of a combination of speeding up existing visa waits and issuing pre-Permanent Resident visas (possibly to be called Lawful Prospective Immigrant status) for a period of years. Additionally the employment-based immigration system would be overhauled to create more high-skill visas and a functioning guest worker program.
We’ll have to see how this debate unfolds. There are whispers that legislation may be on the table as early as early March.